Nation-state Bitcoin adoption enters sudden phase according to Samson Mow

TLDR

• Samson Mow expects nation-state Bitcoin adoption to shift from gradual to sudden.
• The US has yet to begin acquiring Bitcoin, risking being overtaken by others.
• Mow sees Latin America as a key region for future Bitcoin adoption growth.
• Bitcoin’s price surge may be delayed into 2026 despite rising institutional interest.

Nation-state Bitcoin adoption is on the verge of entering a new phase. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, has predicted that the transition from gradual adoption to a “sudden” shift is imminent. As more countries move toward embracing Bitcoin, Mow anticipates a surge in nation-state adoption, which may trigger a race to secure Bitcoin reserves. This shift could drastically change the landscape of global finance in the coming months.

Transitioning to the “Sudden” Phase

Samson Mow believes that the adoption of Bitcoin by nation-states is about to undergo a rapid transformation. During an interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Mow explained that the world is nearing the end of the gradual phase of adoption. He sees this as the beginning of the “suddenly” phase, where countries will quickly shift from skepticism to active Bitcoin acquisition.

Mow emphasized that once the tipping point is reached, countries will move swiftly to secure strategic Bitcoin reserves. “These things happen very quickly,” Mow said, referring to the pace of change that could soon unfold. This sudden rush, often referred to as “nation-state FOMO” (fear of missing out), could drive significant global attention and lead to a wave of countries rushing to hold Bitcoin in their reserves.

US Bitcoin Acquisition Plans Still Pending

Despite the anticipation of nation-state Bitcoin adoption, the United States has yet to begin purchasing Bitcoin for its strategic reserves. According to Mow, while the US has made progress with plans for a budget-neutral Bitcoin acquisition strategy, the country has not taken action yet.

The US government has made moves in the right direction, with President Trump signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Mow pointed out that while the plans are in place, they have not yet been executed, which poses a risk for the United States. He warned that other nations, such as Pakistan, could move ahead of the US in acquiring Bitcoin reserves, leaving the country at a disadvantage.

While some experts, like Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn, predict that the US may form a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of the year, Mow remains cautious. He believes that the US must act quickly to avoid falling behind other nations in securing Bitcoin.

Global Trends in Bitcoin Adoption

The momentum behind Bitcoin adoption is growing, especially in Latin America, where Mow sees significant potential for more countries to join the movement. Mow expressed his optimism about the region, noting that several countries have already made moves toward integrating Bitcoin into their financial systems. This shift is seen as a response to economic instability and the desire for greater financial sovereignty.

Fidelity Digital Assets also published research earlier this year, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, and government treasuries would begin establishing strategic positions in Bitcoin. The trend suggests a growing recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. With governments increasingly turning to Bitcoin, the shift to a broader institutional and nation-state adoption seems inevitable.

Bitcoin’s Price and Market Outlook

While the excitement around nation-state adoption continues to grow, Bitcoin’s price has not experienced the anticipated surge. Mow noted that the expected “massive run-up” in Bitcoin’s price for 2025 has not yet materialized. Instead, the market appears to be waiting for the next catalyst to drive a major price increase.

Mow suggested that the current cycle of Bitcoin adoption might be delayed, with significant price movements potentially pushed into the next year. Other market participants, including Bitwise’s Matt Hougan, have echoed similar sentiments, suggesting that 2026 could be a more favorable year for Bitcoin.

As the debate continues about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle is still relevant, the growing institutional demand, including the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, could alter the typical patterns of Bitcoin’s price movements. The combination of these factors could lead to unexpected shifts in both price and adoption rates as countries prepare to enter the “sudden” phase of Bitcoin integration.

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