Gemini launches yes‑no event contracts for US users after regulatory clearance

Gemini just officially kicked open a new door for American traders as Gemini Predictions launches in all 50 states.

Last Wednesday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) signed off on Gemini to operate as a Designated Contract Market.

That label is what lets them legally run a regulated betting venue, which, in this case, includes the new Gemini Titan platform that starts with classic binary event contracts.

The exchange explains them as “simple yes or no questions on future events,” and the plan is to add other CFTC-supervised products later, like crypto futures, options, and perps.

The company also revealed that it first filed for the DCM license back on March 10, 2020, though at the time it didn’t state outright that it wanted a predictions market.

Gemini enters a prediction market sector expanding under Trump

Prediction markets have been growing like crazy since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. The two biggest players, Kalshi and Polymarket, saw monster trading rallies during last year’s election cycle, with Bloomberg’s data showing their best months hitting back-to-back in October and November.

Both platforms are pacing for similar volumes this month, riding the momentum that hasn’t eased since Trump took office again.

For years, the CFTC kept a tight lid on prediction markets, blocking Polymarket and approving Kalshi’s listings only with extreme caution.

Kalshi later won a legal fight over political betting markets, which opened space for new categories like sports predictions. Under Trump’s second term, the tone at the CFTC shifted fast.

Acting Chair Caroline Pham has taken a more open stance on event contracts, and Trump’s own media company is even gearing up to launch a Truth Social prediction market with Crypto.com.

Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss said, “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance.

Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”

Gemini joins a market reshaped by user demand, fees, and new competition

Prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt let traders bet yes or no on outcomes such as who will control Congress, whether a movie like Bugonia will get an Oscar nomination, whether the Denver Nuggets will win the NBA Finals, or whether Chicago will see more than 12 inches of snow this month.

These contracts operate like peer-to-peer markets. There’s no “house” deciding odds. Traders buy yes or no shares priced between $0 and $1. Supply and demand set the price.

If “yes” is going for 40 cents, that signals the market sees the probability around 40%. If the event happens, the winning side gets $1 per contract. If it fails, the losing side gets nothing.

This setup mirrors derivatives markets, where value is tied to an underlying outcome, letting these companies avoid the state-level gambling rules that hammer traditional sportsbooks.

Kalshi’s recent expansion came from a large distribution deal with Robinhood, which pushed its event markets to 27 million users. Bloomberg Intelligence reported that 54% of Kalshi’s latest volume flowed through Robinhood.

But Robinhood now plans to launch its own rival venue to keep the 50% fee share it currently pays out. It also gave Susquehanna International Group, one of Kalshi’s biggest market makers, an equity stake to supply day-one liquidity.

Prediction markets aren’t new. They date back more than a century, including election bets outside the New York Stock Exchange in the early 1900s. By 1988, academics launched the Iowa Electronic Markets to see if trading behavior could help track public sentiment.

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