Wall Street expert reveals top Tesla stock bull case

Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research, an analyst best-known for issuing Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock price targets near $25 – approximately 93% below the street average of $394.36 – published a lengthy X thread in early April arguing his bearish case in detail.

Within the series of posts, the expert also noted that, in his opinion, the strongest tailwind for the electric vehicle (EV) maker is Elon Musk’s ability to make bold claims while suffering no fallout from a failure to deliver.

Specifically, Gordon Johnson reflected on a pattern with Tesla stock in which the billionaire announces an imminent breakthrough or milestone that leads to a rapid rally. Subsequently, this phenomenon leads to a slow pullback once the unveiled deadline expires, and the pullback ultimately gets cancelled by the next promise.

While giving numerous examples in the thread, some of Johnson’s highlights include the now-infamous ‘Paint it Black’ advertisement, the ‘Dojo’ supercomputer, and complete unsupervised autonomy for Tesla vehicles in Austin by the end of 2025.

Gordon Johnson explains key drivers of Tesla stock past rallies

The 2016 ‘Paint it Black’ video featured a car apparently autonomously navigating city streets, seemingly demonstrating that Tesla has made multiple technological breakthroughs that would rapidly see self-driving cars.

By 2026, it is well-known that the advertisement was staged and, even with a pre-planned route, suffered from a series of mishaps during filming. Additionally, despite a decade elapsing, Tesla is arguably yet to produce a vehicle that is verifiably autonomous to the extent that the one in the video supposedly was.

The ‘Dojo’ supercomputer, according to Johnson, was presented as a machine set to ‘revolutionize AI training and potentially become a standalone cloud business.’ The expert added that Morgan Stanley’s (NYSE: MS) Adam Jonas at one point estimated that the now largely forgotten project would be worth some $600 billion.

Similarly, while there is an ongoing rollout of self-driving cars, it remains significantly more limited in scope and capability – and is approximately a quarter late – than promised.

Wall Street analyst reveals how Elon Musk is strongest Tesla stock tailwind

Along with providing several examples of Tesla’s failure to deliver, Gordon Johnson noted that a majority of executives who engage in similar marketing campaigns to similar ends often end up ostracized or face legal consequences.

The analyst explicitly named Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos, Sam Bankman-Fried of FTX, and Enron’s leadership as people he considers similar in some of their strategies to Elon Musk, and who fared significantly differently from the world’s wealthiest man.

Thus, Gordon Johnson explained that he considers Musk’s apparently unique ability to make promises that are never delivered without facing any notable consequences for what he believes is both false advertising and misleading of investors as the strongest bull case for Tesla:

Tesla stock’s biggest bear not the only one to highlight importance of technology

Elsewhere, while few experts are as bearish as the founder of GLJ Research, there is a relatively widespread understanding that Tesla owes much of its valuation to the cutting-edge technology it variously promises to deliver or has delivered.

Indeed, Elon Musk himself has repeatedly called for investors to view his publicly traded firm as a technology giant or even an artificial intelligence (AI) company rather than as a car manufacturer.

Is Tesla stock headed for $20 in 2026?

Still, despite the long-standing bullishness and visionary rhetoric, 2026 is showing that the narrative surrounding Tesla might be, at least for the time being, losing steam. With its press time price of $366.59, TSLA stock is 18.48% down year-to-date (YTD) and is changing hands 26.50% below its 52-week high.

The decline is, arguably, driven by a notable slowdown in annual sales in recent years and by multiple high-profile departures from the company that took place in the most recent 12 months. 

Considering the importance of the anticipated success of ‘FSD’ – the firm’s self-driving technology – for Tesla shares and the fact that Elon Musk is preparing to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) for a different high-tech company, the pressure on the equity might only grow larger in the coming months.

On the flip side, and due to the same factors, it is possible that the EV maker is close to validating its long-standing technology-based bull case, should it successfully proliferate its fleet of autonomous vehicles in 2026.

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