Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, demands permanent guarantees instead

Iran has rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal, demanding permanent guarantees instead. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 2% just 24 hours ago and 12% a week ago.

The markets reacted to Iran’s firm stance, with the April 15 ceasefire market dropping to 6% YES from 8% yesterday. The April 30 option saw a more pronounced decline, now at 17.5% YES, down from 24% a day ago. The May 31 market fell from 46% to 36% YES, indicating skepticism about any imminent resolution.

Traders are pushing expectations further out, with the biggest jump between April 30 and May 31, where the odds increase by 19 percentage points. The odds for a ceasefire by June 30 remain relatively high at 51.5% YES, reflecting potential long-term optimism.

Nearly $431,402 in USDC was traded across the ceasefire markets in the past 24 hours. The order book depth varies, with $12,352 needed to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, compared to $40,093 for April 15. The largest single move was a 2-point spike for the April 30 market at 5:08 PM, hinting at brief speculative interest.

Iran’s rejection signals a hard line, demanding structural concessions rather than temporary fixes. For traders considering a contrarian position, the payout for a YES share at 1¢ on April 7 is 99x if resolved — reflecting heavy skepticism. Significant diplomatic progress, like intermediary activity or softened rhetoric from key actors, would be needed to shift these odds upward.

Watch intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, and any statements from CENTCOM or the UN Secretary-General for shifts in the diplomatic landscape.