Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid Israel-Iran military escalation

Israel’s attack on Iran’s oil facilities and Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have hit the probability of a ceasefire. Ceasefire by April 7 is now at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.

This escalation has hammered the ceasefire markets. The April 7 market is nearly flat at 1.1% YES. The April 15 market has dropped to 6.5% YES from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market saw the biggest fall, now at 17.5% YES from 40%.

Ceasefire markets are active, with volume at $431,402 in USDC in the last 24 hours. Order book depth varies — $12,352 is needed to move the April 7 price by 5 points, showing moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 2-point spike in the April 30 market, likely reacting to unexpected news.

Military escalation makes a ceasefire by early April unlikely. With odds at 1.1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire happens by April 7 — a 90x return. But for that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a diplomatic miracle happens in four days. Heightened military actions push the prospect of peace further out, as evidenced by the substantial decrease in odds across all near-term markets.

Watch U.S. diplomatic channels and any mediation efforts by Oman or Qatar. If Trump’s administration appoints an envoy or announces new talks, that could jolt these markets.

Markets Impacted

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