BTC Price Clings to $66K Amid Bear Flag Pressure: Crash Imminent or Relief Bounce? (April 3 Update)

While flirting with the bottom of its bear flag, the $BTC price is still hanging on. Is it just a matter of time before the crash, or could the bulls put on a decent bounce that could still threaten the bear market trend?

Drop or surge?

Source: TradingView

As the $BTC price edges along the bottom of the bear flag (bold purple line) it does look like it is just a matter of time before a big drop lower takes place. Looking at how the price is travelling toward the bear market trendline, it should take no longer than about a week for it to get there. The major $69,000 level will also be there waiting, as will the bottom trendline of the bear flag.

The bulls’ best shot is a strong surge that takes the price above $70,000, and that needs to happen by the beginning of next week when shorter term momentum indicators have had a chance to reset.

$66,000 is last level for bulls to hold

Source: TradingView

The daily chart reveals the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which is moving into place as yet another resistance, just as happened in the first bear flag. 

It can also be seen that there is a major support/resistance level running through both bear flags. In the current bear flag there are two, but the one supplying most of the support is the $66,000 level. Just as was the case for $89,000 in the first bear flag, once $66,000 fails this far along the bear flag, that is potentially the start of the crash.

The Stochastic RSI indicators in this daily time frame look to be turning back down again - yet another bad sign for the bulls.

A bear market bottom in the next 3 months?

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart view reveals that the 200-week SMA (red line) is moving up to provide support at the $60,000 level, which if it held, would supply a potential double bottom - a good base for a bullish recovery. That said, it can be observed back in the 2021 bear market that the $BTC price did come below this traditional support.

The MACD illustrates that the indicator lines have come down to their lowest levels ever. Are they levelling out before turning back up? Also, the histogram bars during the 2022 bear market show two successive red dips before the green bars resumed, and the bear market reached its bottom.

We have just had two red dips in succession, and now we will either have three, or the histogram bars will turn green, signalling that the bear market could be hitting its bottom in the next three months or so.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.