Why The ALDS Battle Between New York And Toronto Isn’t Over Yet

The highly anticipated American League Division Series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees has done anything but live up to expectations.

Despite these two teams finishing the regular season with the same overall record, and the Blue Jays only winning the season series over the Yankees by three games, Toronto has established a commanding lead in the five-game series.

After the first two games, the Blue Jays have outscored the Yankees 23-8, with the run differential being 22-1 in the first 14 innings of the series.

Now, they enter New York only needing to win one of the next three games to reach their first American League Championship Series since 2016.

While that all may make it sound like the remaining games are a formality, crazier things have happened in the playoffs.

So, why might the Yankees be able to breathe life back into the ALDS and their season overall?

The first trend is on the mound. In games three and four, the Yankees will be starting Carlos Rodon and Cam Schlittler.

The two starters pitched in the Wild Card round against the Boston Red Sox. In that series, Rodon went 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, 4 hits, 3 walks, and struck out 6 batters.

Rodon did not get the winning decision, but his six innings were enough for the bullpen to force a winner-take-all Game Three.

In that game, the rookie Schlitter shined in his postseason debut, going 8 scoreless innings with 12 strikeouts and zero walks.

A 12-strikeout performance will be difficult to replicate against the Blue Jays, who were the second-best team in baseball at limiting strikeouts. However, the Yankees are desperate for similar production from their next two starters.

And, based on their pitch arsenals, they may be better suited for the task of the Blue Jays.

This regular season, the Blue Jays limited the strikeout by also having the best team batting average in baseball, nearly .020 percentage points above the league average.

This is not by accident, as Toronto made a conscious decision to go away from the “three-true outcome” approach of modern baseball teams.

With players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer, who slugged a combined 55 homers, they pose a threat offensively to do more than hit for contact.

However, the depth of the lineup all share the ability to put the ball in play and force the defense to make a play.

This strategy not only led them to the #1 seed in the American League postseason, but it also directly led to the biggest difference in terms of their overall record compared to their Pythagorean W-L record.

Based on their runs for vs runs against, the Blue Jays should have been an 88-74 team. However, with this relentless lineup, they posted a 27-20 record in one-score games, with several come-from-behind victories.

While the first two games were not close against New York, it was because of an offensive blitz from the lineup against Yankees starters Luis Gil and Max Fried.

Not much was expected from Gil in Game One, as due to injury, Gil had only pitched 57 innings coming into the postseason.

In that limited time, Gil has been a different pitcher, averaging just 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings compared to his career average of 10.4.

Fried, on the other hand, has been all that the Yankees could have asked for entering the playoffs.

The Yankee ace has never been a prolific strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine in his career.

Instead, Fried is one of the most efficient starters in baseball, with a league-leading five complete games since 2021.

Fried does so by inducing soft contact, with an average exit velocity of 87.2 miles per hour.

For most teams, this would be an issue. But for Toronto, this played right into their strong suit.

Of the 18 batters Fried faced, 10 reached base on 8 hits and 2 walks. Fried attempted to extend the zone more than he typically does, with just 32 strikes to his 51 pitches thrown.

This is where Rodon and Schlittler can cause a different result than Gil and Fried were able to.

While the Blue Jays are unlikely to strike out as much as the Red Sox did last series, the fact that Rodon and Schlittler have more effective put-away pitches will make the Blue Jays’ contact tool more difficult to execute.

Since these teams are divisional foes, Toronto does have experience against their next two starters. In two starts, Rodon has a 3.60 ERA against the Blue Jays, and Schlittler has an 8.10 ERA (his worst against any team).

However, based on these metrics, the results should favor New York’s pitching staff as the sample size increases.

This sense of familiarity will not be on the Yankees’ side offensively for Game Three, as Shane Bieber will get the start.

The former Cy Young winner joined the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, and only pitched 40.1 innings before the playoffs.

While Bieber has adjusted his pitch arsenal, dropping his slider usage to 20.3% compared to an average of 25-30% in his prime, he still brings what he was known for in Cleveland: a five-pitch mix.

Those five pitches Bieber offers have stifled the Yankees veterans who have faced Bieber, as Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm have all failed to record a hit against him.

The only silver lining for New York is that a splitter is not included within that five-pitch mix. In the last two losses for New York, Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage utilized the splitter as their putaway pitch. Since the Yankees have faced Gausman several times before, they knew to attack the fastball, which allowed an efficient 5.2 innings while allowing just one run.

Yesavage, on the other hand, was untouchable, going 5.1 no-hit innings, striking out 11.

However, the goal against Bieber is to get him out of the game as early as possible, in hopes of seeing more of the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

On the year, the Blue Jays had the 16th-ranked bullpen in baseball, which hurt their already impressive record in close games due to blown leads.

While Game Two was already out of reach, the Yankees’ offense managed to surpass four runs for the first time this postseason.

While the challenge to limit the Blue Jays’ lineup could determine the series, it may all not matter if the best offense in baseball this year fails to deliver one more time.

But, with these matchup differences coming as the series progresses, there may be reason to believe in the pinstripes to extend the series.