Former Trump strategist says it’s clear he had a 'significant misread' of Iran’s power

President Donald Trump on Monday said that Iran desperately wants to negotiate on a deal with the United States and suggested conversations were ongoing over the weekend. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament posted on X that he has no idea what Trump is talking about. All of it indicates to one former Trump strategist that the president didn't plan for any of this.

"We have had very, very strong talks," Trump told the press on the tarmac in Palm Beach, Florida Monday morning. "We'll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement. I would say almost all points of agreement. So, they called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal. And we are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal and it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons."

"Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors," wrote MB Ghalibaf on X. "All Irainan (sic) officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved. No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."

According to Trump, his son-in-law Jared Kushner had "very good and productive conversations with Iran regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East."

It all comes after Trump threatened Saturday night that he would strike a power plant in Iran, which would be a civilian target.

According to CNN reporter Kevin Liptak, "What he heard and what his envoys heard over the weekend from regional officials was that that would cause an enormous amount of escalation and retaliation."

The threat prompted stocks to soar and gas prices to dive below $100.

So, it appears that Trump may be the one who backed down from his own threats.

Nate Swanson, a former Trump staffer and current senior fellow and director of the Iran Strategy Project at The Atlantic Council, suggested that both things could be true.

From Trump's perspective, Swanson said, he's likely looking for an off-ramp and also trying to calm markets. With his comments today, he's hitting two birds with one stone.

"He's showing he's interested enough in a deal. And, you know, as you just said, the market's a little better now. Iran has probably got two different motivations. I think on one hand, this is a good time for an off-ramp for them as well. They're probably at their max leverage point here. I think it only kind of goes downhill from here. But they don't want to see the markets improve without an actual deal," Swanson explained, saying that's likely why Iran is being dismissive of Trump's comments, saying it's "fake news."

He doubts that there are "advanced" talks going on.

Trump's threats over the weekend resulted in markets getting spooked and

Swanson said that he assumes Trump thought the whole operation would be easy and he'd be successful with the strikes last summer.

Trump was coming off a "win" from his June strikes and from capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. In the past, Trump was able to kill Iranian military officer Qasem Soleimani "with virtually no repercussions," said Swanson.

"So, my assumption here, and what we've heard is that, you know, the administration is expecting a three to four day war — was they thought this would be fast. But I think that was a significant misread of where Iran was and how they were perceiving the threat. So, probably not enough planning," said Swanson.

CNN host Dana Bash noted that there has been a lot of criticism of the administration for not doing enough to prepare, particularly when it came to the Strait of Hormuz, which, if shut down for too long, could usher in global economic collapse.

Swanson said that the Strait is the leverage that Iran has over both Trump and the world. They've long issued such threats. What he noticed is that there appears to have been a greater focus on Iran's missile capabilities than on the Strait of Hormuz.

In a column for Foreign Affairs, Swanson wrote that Trump "cannot force surrender on a government that refuses it. Even after the heavy damage to Iran's military, the regime that Khamenei put in place has powerful incentives to pursue continued conflict, and it retains a variety of tools to sustain a war of attrition."

Bash asked what else Iran likely has, and Swanson said that UAV's (drones) are cheap and easy and that they have been able to escape some detection by the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. is shooting down the drones that cost less than $30,000 with million-dollar missiles.

"And Iran seems like a near limitless supply of them," said Swanson. In a traditional war, Iran would seek to defeat the U.S. and Israel, but the reality, he said, is that Iran simply needs to survive. "And that is victory enough for this regime. So it's just we have very different objectives and end games."

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