Trading Moments: Global central banks hold rates steady, gold hits 6-week low, Bitcoin retreats to $70,000 and enters a period of low volatility.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macro Market

The hawkish stance of global central banks has shattered the bulls' defenses. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that interest rate cuts are unlikely this year unless inflation makes progress. The high-interest-rate environment coupled with inflation concerns triggered a flash crash in precious and industrial metals. Gold plunged 6% yesterday to near the $4,500 mark, hitting a six-week low; silver experienced a 12% intraday drop before closing down 3.3%; and LME aluminum saw its largest single-day decline since 2018 (nearly 8%). Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG pointed out that inflation risks are eroding expectations of rate cuts, and rising global interest rates are relentlessly dragging down precious metals. Although Yardeni Research believes a repeat of stagflation in the 1970s is unlikely, Goldman Sachs' Christian Mueller-Glissmann remains convinced that if stagflation does occur, gold will remain a core asset allocation choice.

It is worth noting that Wall Street will see a notional value of $5.7 trillion in options expiring on Friday , the largest March settlement since Citigroup began keeping records in 1996. This settlement includes $4.1 trillion in index contracts, $772 billion in ETF options, and $875 billion in individual stock options.

crude oil market

On March 20, the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran entered its 21st day, resulting in over 4,100 deaths. In response to soaring oil prices, Trump demanded that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu halt attacks on energy infrastructure. He also announced a waiver of sanctions on Russian oil until April 2026 and pledged to " take all necessary measures to maintain oil price stability."

Israel's recent military strike on Iran's South Pars gas field triggered a swift Iranian retaliation , and the conflict has spread to energy facilities in several Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The Middle East energy supply chain has suffered a devastating blow, with European natural gas futures surging by as much as 35% intraday. The CEO of Qatar Energy revealed that 17% of the country's LNG production capacity has been damaged, resulting in annual losses of up to $20 billion, with repairs expected to take 3 to 5 years. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's Yanbu refinery and two refineries in Kuwait caught fire after drone attacks.

Iran's foreign minister warned that if energy facilities are attacked again, Iran will no longer exercise restraint and is pushing forward with plans to impose taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz . Currently, the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a major concern for many countries. Seven countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, issued a joint statement pledging to work towards stabilizing the energy market, but no concrete actions have yet been taken.

Brent crude oil prices surged 10% to $119 a barrel on Thursday before plummeting; WTI crude also briefly broke through $100 before falling more than 8% from its intraday high; while Dubai oil prices hit a record high of $177. Barclays believes that as long as WTI is kept around $95, the impact on US stocks remains relatively manageable. Wood Mackenzie warned that oil prices reaching $200 a barrel by 2026 is not impossible; CIBC's Rebecca Babin went even further, stating that if the war drags on until June, oil prices could reach $180.

Bitcoin price

Bitcoin encountered strong resistance after reaching a local high of $76,000, dragged down by the decline in US stocks and the hawkish decision of the Federal Reserve, falling all the way to below $69,000 and currently trading around $70,500. Today, BTC options with a notional value of $1.6 billion and ETH options with a notional value of $370 million expire. The maximum resistance level for BTC is $70,000 , and for ETH it is $2,150 . Adam, an analyst at Greeks.live, stated that the current implied volatility for BTC's main maturities is 50%, and for ETH it is 70%. The decline in actual volatility has led to a continued rise in volatility risk premiums, indicating a conservative market sentiment. Barring unforeseen events, Bitcoin may enter a period of low-volatility trading.

Bearish view

Core logic: With macroeconomic pressures and a technical breakdown converging, the market faces significant resistance above and is likely to enter a prolonged period of downward fluctuation or a deep correction.

• Murphy: The BRS indicator has fallen to 10 and has not touched the zero axis, indicating that the rebound is nearing its end and the high point is unlikely to break $76,000. A short order is currently placed at $74,400; if the support is broken, the target will be $65,000 to $67,000.

• Killa: There is currently a lack of structural confirmation to push the price to $80,000. If it fails to recover the weekly opening price of $72,800, the price will continue to fall to $68,000 or even $65,000.

• CJ: This round of gains failed to break through the previous range high. The plan is to short when the price retests the resistance. Unless there is a strong breakout above $74,000, the target will be $80,000.

• Rekt Capital: Bitcoin is testing the 200-week EMA support at $68,300. If the weekly close breaks below this level, the support will be invalidated, and the downside will be fully opened.

• Roman: The current range-bound trading could last for months, and a deeper pullback to $50,000 is even possible.

bullish view

Core logic: Liquidity clearing at key support levels has been completed, and historical fractals and institutional spot buying suggest that the current pullback is the perfect launchpad for a new round of parabolic rallies.

• CrypNuevo: This was a perfect intraday trade setup. The price drop to $69,000 precisely cleared out the low-point liquidity, and the oversold pullback has completed its rebalancing.

• Skew: Significant signs of selling pressure absorption were observed around $69,000, with spot buying driving prices to stabilize and rebound.

• AlphaBTC: We firmly believe that driven by the rebound in traditional financial markets, Bitcoin will first reach $80,000, rather than fall to $50,000.

• Glassnode: Bitcoin supply profitability has rebounded to 60%. If it can absorb the current selling pressure and hold $70,000, it is expected to challenge the $78,000 to $82,000 range.

Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, March 20)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$90,189,600

• Ethereum ETF: -$131 million

• Fear of Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear)

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, POLYX, ETH, BTT

• Sector Performance: The crypto market fell for the third consecutive day, with only the AI ​​and GameFi sectors showing relative resilience.

24-hour liquidation A total of 85,325 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $246 million, including $80.6 million in BTC liquidations, $50.96 million in ETH liquidations, and $7.19 million in SOL liquidations.

Today's Outlook

• Binance removed and suspended spot trading pairs BONK/BRL and ME/FDUSD.

• Binance has suspended deposits and withdrawals of NIL tokens on its mainnet to support the network's integration with the ERC20 network.

• ZRO will unlock approximately 25.72 million tokens on March 20, worth approximately $43.7 million.

• KAITO will unlock approximately 18 million tokens, worth about $6.3 million, on March 20.

• River will unlock approximately 1.1 million tokens, worth about $26.7 million, on March 22.

• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 73 million tokens, worth about $3 million, on March 22.

• US Stocks' "Quadruple Witching Day": Stock Index Futures and Options, Individual Stock Options and Futures Expiry (March 20)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Bittensor up 18.1%, Kite up 17.1%, Pi Network up 6.7%, ASI Alliance up 6.6%, and Quant up 4.8%.

Hot News

• Jupiter has launched Pre-IPO stock token trading functionality.

• Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has laid off approximately 30% of its staff since the beginning of the year.

• Six countries issued a joint statement: prepared to take measures to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz.

• Animoca Brands has invested in AVAX tokens, aiming to drive Avalanche's expansion in Asia and the Middle East.

• The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 3.75% as expected.

• The Bank of Japan kept its interest rates unchanged as expected.

• The Federal Reserve maintains its expectation of one rate cut in 2026.

• FTX will distribute an additional $2.2 billion to creditors starting March 31.

• The Federal Reserve announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations.