Extreme Fear Grips Bitcoin as On-Chain Data Signals Structural Stress

• Bitcoin short-term holders face deep unrealised losses, placing profitability in the bottom tier of market history.
• Realised losses rise steadily, showing controlled selling pressure rather than full panic-driven capitulation.
• Extreme fear dominates sentiment as capital exits the network and liquidity weakens across the market.

Bitcoin is in serious pain right now. The Fear and Greed Index has crashed to a reading of 9, a level rarely seen outside of major market collapses. 

On-chain analytics platform OnChainMind has been tracking the damage closely. Their latest breakdown reveals mounting losses, shrinking capital, and a market psychologically running on empty. The data is ugly, but the structure is consistent.

New Bitcoin Investors Are Sitting on Heavy Losses

Short-term holders are hurting. OnChainMind reports that new investor profitability currently sits at just 18%. That reading places today’s market conditions in the bottom fifth of Bitcoin’s entire price history.

Short-term holders are those who have owned their coins for fewer than 155 days. This group is typically the most reactive during price swings. 

When they are deep in the red, they face a hard choice: absorb the loss and sell, or hold on and wait for recovery. Right now, many are stuck in that painful in-between, watching losses grow with no clear end in sight.

Selling Pressure Is Building but Has Not Peaked

Not everyone is holding. OnChainMind’s Recent Spending metric sits at 27%, pointing to steady but controlled loss-taking across the market. Sellers are moving, but the market has not yet hit full panic mode.

Real capitulation looks very different from this. It is messy, fast, and emotionally charged. 

The platform suggests that one or two more sharp price drops may be needed before true exhaustion kicks in. That kind of exhaustion is what historically clears the market and sets the stage for recovery. The current phase is pressure building, not pressure releasing.

Capital Is Walking Away From Bitcoin

Beyond price and sentiment, the capital flow data tells the most serious part of this story. 

Bitcoin’s Realised Cap, which tracks the actual cost basis of coins held on-chain, has fallen 2.4% over the past 30 days. OnChainMind flags this as a rare and meaningful signal.

During most corrections, the Realised Cap holds steady or continues climbing. A negative reading means coins are changing hands below what their holders originally paid. 

Committed capital is leaving the network. This pattern has historically appeared only during late bear markets or periods of real structural breakdown. The outflows have not yet shown signs of slowing.

Fear at This Level Has a Market-Wide Effect

A Fear and Greed Index reading of 9 does more than reflect how traders feel. It actively shapes market behavior. 

OnChainMind explains that extreme fear drives participation lower, thins out order books, and makes price swings sharper. Each sharp move feeds more fear, and the cycle continues.

To put the number in context, the 2018 bear market bottomed at 11 on the same index. The March 2020 COVID crash hit 9. A reading this low is not common. 

According to OnChainMind, markets do not recover when sentiment suddenly flips positive. They recover after sellers exhaust themselves and panic runs out of fuel. That process, based on the current data, is still unfolding.

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