Solana Price Analysis Flags Big Risk After 20% DEX Volume Drop

The Solana price is under pressure after failing to break a key resistance level. Over the past 24 hours, SOL has dropped 5.4%, extending its rejection near the $89 zone. But the price rejection did not happen in isolation.

Exclusive Dune dashboard data shows Solana’s DEX volume fell sharply last week, possibly weakening buyer conviction and triggering selling from some of the network’s strongest holders. This combination could now play a decisive role in Solana price prediction over the coming weeks.

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Solana DEX Volume Drops Over 20% as RSI Confirms Price Weakness

BeInCrypto’s exclusive Dune dashboard data shows Solana’s weekly DEX trading volume dropped from $95.6 billion in the week ending February 2 to $74.3 billion in the week ending February 9. This marks a sharp decline of $21.3 billion, or over 20%, in just one week.

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DEX volume measures how much actual trading activity is happening on Solana’s decentralized exchanges. When volume rises, it signals strong participation and demand. This drop happened at a critical time.

On the 12-hour chart, Solana’s price attempted to break above the $89 resistance level highlighted last week but failed. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures buying and selling momentum, formed a higher high while price formed a lower high between February 2 and February 15.

This is called a hidden bearish divergence. It signals that although momentum appears to improve, the underlying price strength is weakening. The divergence confirmed exactly when Solana failed to clear $89. The weak DEX participation helps explain why. With fewer traders entering the market, the bounce lacked the strength needed to break resistance.

This is an important signal for Solana price prediction. Without strong trading activity, rallies become harder to sustain.

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Long-Term Holders Begin Selling as Conviction Weakens

The drop in DEX activity coincided with a major shift in holder behavior. Some of Solana’s most important investor groups began reducing their holdings, per the HODL Waves metric, which partitions holders by time held. The biggest warning comes from long-term holders who held SOL for three to five years.

Their share of supply dropped from 9.77% on February 8 to 7.28% now. This represents a decline of 2.49 percentage points, or about 25.5%.

These holders are considered the strongest hands in the market. They usually sell only when confidence weakens significantly. Their selling adds meaningful supply and reduces market stability. At the same time, mid-term holders who held SOL for three to six months also reduced their positions.

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Their share fell from 24.21% on February 3 to 20.78% now. This marks a decline of 3.43 percentage points, or roughly 14.2%. The timing is critical. Most of this selling happened between February 3 and February 9, the same period when DEX volume collapsed.

This shows a clear connection. As trading activity weakened, conviction holders began exiting. This behavior plays a major role in Solana’s price prediction going forward. When long-term holders sell, recoveries often slow down or fail completely.

It also explains why the Solana price failed to sustain its recent bounce that started on February 6. The overlap between falling DEX participation and long-term holder selling also explains why the Solana price failed to break above $89.

Solana Price Now Tests Critical $84 Support Level

The Solana price is now approaching one of its most important support zones. The key level to watch is $84.

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Cost basis heatmap data shows that between $83 and $84, more than 6.44 million SOL were accumulated. This makes it one of the strongest near-term support zones because many investors may try to defend their positions.

If Solana price holds this level, stabilization could follow. But if SOL breaks below $84, the outlook changes quickly.

The first downside target sits at $79. Below that, the next major support appears at $59, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This would represent a potential 30% decline from recent highs. This makes the current zone critical for Solana price prediction.

On the upside, recovery requires reclaiming the $89 resistance level. A confirmed breakout above $91 would strengthen bullish momentum and open the path toward $106. Until then, the price remains vulnerable.

The recent drop in Solana DEX volume, combined with long-term holder selling and resistance rejection, shows weakening conviction. Unless long-term buying activity returns and key resistance levels are reclaimed, Solana price prediction remains heavily dependent on whether the $84 support can hold or fails in the coming sessions.