OSL Trading Hours: Cryptocurrency shows volatile trend, market expects "Santa Claus bounce"

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

The cryptocurrency market has been volatile recently. Despite the market's expectations for a "Santa Claus bounce", Bitcoin fell due to reduced buying activity by large investors. Concerns that the Federal Reserve may take a tougher stance and expectations of reduced interest rate cuts also led to a weak performance in the cryptocurrency market over the weekend. Notably, tokenization platform Allo received $100 million in financing to strengthen its Bitcoin-backed lending business. Although Ethereum failed to set a new all-time high, it still shows strong growth potential.

Analyst Justin Bennett pointed out that BTC's current bullish pattern is similar to the previous surge, and based on historical trends, it is predicted that Bitcoin may break through $168,500. Institutional, MicroStrategy continues to be optimistic about Bitcoin, increasing its holdings of 5,262 BTC for $561 million, which is also the company's seventh consecutive week of purchases. At the same time, Senator Ted Cruz expressed his support for Bitcoin at the Turning Point Americafest conference.

However, the market also faces some challenges. The Wall Street Journal raised concerns that Bitcoin may be threatened by quantum computing, and based on historical patterns, BTC's price adjustment could reach 30%. The current average trading volume of Bitcoin is $31 billion, which is still far below its historical highs. Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers pointed out that $84,000 is the "greatest pain" level for Bitcoin before the expiration of major options in December. Despite this, key indicators of on-chain activity still indicate that the Web3 field is expected to achieve sustainable growth.

2. Key data (as of December 24, Eastern Time)

• S&P 500: 6,040.04 (+26.50% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 20,031.13 points (+32.88% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.591% (+70.4 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 108.095 (+6.63% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $98,173.47 (+128.0% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $46.935 billion

• Ethereum: $3,489.17 (+53.50% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $23.267 billion

3. ETF flows

• Bitcoin ETF: -$150 million (Dec. 24 EST)

• Ethereum ETF: +$131 million (Dec. 23 EST)

4. Important Dates

With the Christmas holiday approaching, Hong Kong stocks and financial markets in many European countries will be closed for two and a half days starting from Tuesday (24th), and US stocks will be closed for one and a half days.

5. Hot News

• VitaDAO plans to distribute 6.9 million BIO to VITA and VitaDAO IPT holders

• GoPlus releases GPS token economics: 10% of total supply will be used for airdrops

• aiPool Community: There are still 10% of tokens that have not been distributed, and the final distribution is expected to be completed by tomorrow at the latest

• Glassnode: Solana has maintained positive net capital inflows since early September 2023

• South Korea's average daily cryptocurrency trading volume in November was on par with the stock market, and the total number of investors exceeded 15 million

• An anonymous user pledged 10,000 BTC on Babylon 10 days ago, worth over $1 billion

• A whale that received 116.7 million PENGU airdrops purchased $1 million worth of PENGU tokens

• Cumberland deposited 16,201 ETH to Coinbase, worth about $55 million

• Binance Alpha adds 5 new projects: GAME, UFD, GEL, GOUT, and YNE

• Sahara AI releases 2024-2025 roadmap: Sahara Chain mainnet will be launched in Q3 2025

• Sun Yuchen denies rumors of liquidating ETH: This is just an ETH transfer operation between different wallets of the team

• The full-chain interoperability protocol Analog mainnet is officially launched, and core functions will be introduced before TGE

• Mt.Gox has transferred more than 3,631 BTC to B2C2 Group since December 5

• Matrixport: Bitcoin's pullback may accumulate power for a rebound in 2025, and $90,000 to $95,000 may be an excellent pullback range

• Binance supports Fantom’s rebranding to Sonic and token swap

• Virtual Protocol ecosystem tokens generally rose, GAME rose by more than 30% in 24 hours

• IOTA will introduce a sustainable token economic model with an annual inflation rate of 6%

• South Korean regulator denies reports it will allow businesses to buy cryptocurrencies

• Forbes predicts seven major trends in the crypto industry in 2025: G7 or BRICS countries will establish strategic Bitcoin reserves

• Grayscale announces that it has opened private subscription for 22 cryptocurrency trust products

• Meme coins will account for 31% of crypto narratives in 2024, a nearly 4-fold increase from last year

• IRS again insists in lawsuit that crypto staking is taxable

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