Bitcoin touched new lows under $64,000 as market selling reached a historic level, and analysts warn that the bottom is not in. Does data support analysts’ sub-$60,000 prediction?
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 13% over the past four days, sliding to $63,844 from $79,300. It is currently trading below $69,000, which is the 2021 bull market high, a level many see as a support level.
The drop was matched by a sharp decline in futures activity, with BTC’s open interest falling by more than $10 billion over the past seven days.
Analysts are now focusing on the long-term technical zones and onchain indicators that may signal a major turning point for BTC.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin has dropped 13% in four days, slipping below the 2021 cycle high near $69,000 after a sharp leverage reset.
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A key Bitcoin demand zone from $58,000 to $69,000 is supported by heavy transaction volume and the 200-week moving average.
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Oversold technical and sentiment indicators suggest downside pressure may be peaking for BTC, even if a relief rally fails to manifest.
Why the $69,000 level matters for Bitcoin
The $69,000 level represents the peak of the 2021 bull market. Prior cycle tops have historically acted as support during bear markets. In the last cycle, Bitcoin bottomed near the 2017 high of $19,600 before briefly dipping lower to about $16,000 in November 2022.
Bitcoin one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe current drop below $69,000 may follow this pattern. However, past cycles also show that prices can fall below prior highs before forming a final bottom. This keeps downside risk open for BTC.
Bitwise European Head of Research André Dragosch noted that a large share of recent transactions occurred between $58,000 and $69,000. This range also aligns with the 200-weekly moving average near $58,000, reinforcing it as a key demand zone.
Bitcoin URPD chart. Source: GlassnodeMeanwhile, crypto analyst exitpump highlighted that large BTC bids are visible on order books between $68,000 and $65,000, suggesting buyer interest on dips.
Related: Bitcoin price may drop below $64K as veteran raises ‘campaign selling’ alarm
BTC flashes record oversold signals
Market analyst Subu Trade said that Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30. Bitcoin has reached this level only four times, and in each case, the price rallied by an average of 16% over the next four days.
Bitcoin weekly chart and RSI comparison. Source: XCrypto analyst MorenoDV also noted that the adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has also turned negative for the first time since 2023. This means the average holder is now at a loss. Similar conditions in 2018–2019, 2020 and 2022–2023 all led to price recoveries for BTC.
While a relief rally might not take shape immediately, Moreno pointed out that the current “speed of sentiment deterioration” is much faster than the previous cycles. The analyst added,
Bitcoin adjusted net unrealized profit/loss NUPL. Source: CryptoQuantRelated: Three signs that Bitcoin price could be near ‘full capitulation’
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