Analyst PlanB Presents 4 Scenarios for the “Bear Market”

Bitcoin BTC $71 420 24h volatility: 6.1% Market cap: $1.43 T Vol. 24h: $93.84 B slipped below $70,000 on February 5 as analyst PlanB confirmed the crypto market is firmly in a bear phase.

Traders are now searching for a potential bottom. He outlined four possible price scenarios based on past cycles and market structure.

Bitcoin closed January near $78,000, 40% down from its October peak of $126,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 49 and placed Bitcoin in a downtrend zone.

Similar RSI conditions came during previous bear phases in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

PlanB described four possible cases for the ongoing downturn. The worst case would follow previous deep crashes, when BTC fell about 80% from its peak.

If it happens, the cryptocurrency could see a drop to $25,000.

A second scenario suggests that BTC could slide toward the 200-week moving average. This results in a possible price drop between $50,000 and $60,000.

A third and milder drop would see Bitcoin holding just above its previous cycle high near $69,000 to $70,000.

The last scenario suggests that the recent low near $72,900 may already be the bottom.

PlanB noted that the last bull phase was weaker compared to prior cycles, which could lead to a shallower drop this time.

He added that the traditional 4-year cycle remains intact, though the timing of peaks and troughs may shift.

Crypto Winter Conditions

The total crypto market cap has fallen about 25% over the past month, while stablecoin dominance has climbed to a 2.5 year high.

This suggests investors are avoiding deploying fresh capital as analysts confirm crypto winter arrival.

Data shows that institutional investors, including Trend Research and the Bhutan government, have sold portions of their crypto holdings.

Bitcoin has broken below the 100-week moving average support. In past cycles, similar breaks led to quick drops toward the 200-week level before any sustainable recovery.

Some analysts argue the cycle may be progressing faster than usual. Bitcoin topped earlier than expected in October, and the decline since then has been sharp.

Bear markets have historically lasted around 12 months, but this faster pace raises the chance that a bottom could form between June and August.

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