AERO Weekly Analysis Feb 3

AERO shows weak performance with a 5.23% weekly decline, maintaining its main downtrend; if the critical support level of $0.3665 is broken, deeper corrections may come into play, but oversold signals in RSI carry short-term recovery potential.

AERO in the Weekly Market Summary

AERO traded in the $0.38 – $0.41 range last week and closed at the $0.38 level with a 5.23% loss. Volume profile measured at $15.48M, while Bitcoin’s downward movement across the market is pressuring altcoins. The main trend is downward, with RSI at 34.14 approaching the oversold zone; MACD shows a negative histogram and price is trading below EMA20 ($0.45). Market structure carries distribution phase characteristics and the trend filter gives a bearish signal. For long-term portfolio managers, $0.3665 support is key – accumulation signals can be sought if this level holds. For more detailed spot data, check the AERO Spot Analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

AERO’s long-term trend structure is clearly downward; price is positioned below major moving averages and lower high/lower low formations dominate on higher timeframes (weekly/monthly). EMA20 ($0.45) and EMA50 levels are acting as strong resistances, indicating the trend remains intact. From a market cycle perspective, it appears to have entered the distribution phase following the rally at the end of 2025 – price has declined 47% from the $0.7158 peak. Staying above $0.3665 support is essential to avoid trend breakdown; otherwise, a deep correction extending to $0.0926 could activate. This structure signals patient accumulation for position traders, but it is risky under macro pressures.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Market phase analysis reveals dominant distribution patterns in recent weeks: Price tested and was rejected at $0.41 resistance, with decreasing volume and smart money outflow signals present. In the volume profile, around $0.38 stands out as a high-volume node, but a break below this level could trigger cascade selling. On the other hand, RSI at 34.14 carries oversold divergence potential – this could mark the start of a long-term accumulation phase, but volume increase and higher low formation are needed for confirmation. Distribution characteristics (fading volume on rallies) support the downtrend continuation; strong buy signals should be awaited at $0.3665 for accumulation.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, AERO exhibits a bearish structure with 1 support/2 resistance levels: Price approaching $0.3665 support, with $0.4158 resistance as the first barrier. MACD histogram is expanding negatively, RSI oversold without divergence. Daily Supertrend is bearish, confirming short-term selling pressure. From a confluence perspective, the overlap of EMA20 with $0.4158 resistance creates a strong rejection point – a breakout could lead to a $0.6301 target, but the probability is low.

Weekly Chart View

The weekly chart shows 1 support/4 resistance confluence: $0.3665 main support (score 83/100), with $0.4158 (61/100) and $0.7158 (60/100) above. Trend structure intact with lower lows, weekly RSI stable bearish in the 40s. This timeframe is critical for position traders; if support holds, accumulation may be starting, but risk increases with BTC pressure. Check the AERO Futures Analysis for futures market dynamics.

Critical Decision Points

The main levels that will determine market direction are as follows: Supports: $0.3665 (very strong, score 83/100 – this is the inflection point), $0.30 (secondary). Resistances: $0.4158 (61/100), $0.51 (trend filter), $0.7158 (long-term). Breakouts of these levels will determine the R/R ratio: Upside $0.6301 (score 10), downside $0.0926 (score 22). Visit the AERO and other analyses section for other analyses. The trend structure says, ‘bearish bias remains as long as above $0.3665, look for reversal on breakout.’

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

For the bullish scenario, a volume-backed breakout above $0.4158 resistance is required – this provides daily/weekly confluence and opens the path to $0.51, then $0.6301 upside objective. Position traders can enter longs above $0.38 with $0.3665 stop-loss; R/R 1:3+. Scale-in is recommended with accumulation phase confirmation, but BTC resistances should be monitored.

In Bearish Case

Bearish scenario active: If $0.3665 breaks, short positions validate down to $0.0926 downside risk. Staying below EMA20 strengthens the trend; keep position sizing low, enter on $0.41 rejection. Risk management is critical – do not exceed 5% portfolio risk.

Bitcoin Correlation

AERO shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $75,936 ($74,625 / $71,188 supports) with Supertrend bearish, putting extra pressure on altcoins. If BTC cannot break $76,937 resistance, AERO’s $0.3665 support will be tested – rising dominance is negative for alts. If BTC slips below $71,188, cascade risk rises for AERO; a $79,318 breakout brings relief. Altcoin traders should prioritize BTC levels.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus on $0.3665 support and $0.4158 resistance; BTC reaction at $74,625 is critical. If trend remains intact, distribution continues, oversold bounce can be sought. Position traders be patient – volume confirmation essential for accumulation. Bearish bias dominates unless market structure changes.