Steve Sosnick: Bitcoin’s transition to a risk asset, why gold is a better safe haven now, and the impact of central bank independence on market stability

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin has transitioned into a risk asset, performing well during periods of monetary accommodation.
• There is a high correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the Nasdaq 100, indicating interconnected market dynamics.
• Bitcoin’s volatility needs to decrease to be seen as a stable currency like traditional ones.
• The firm acknowledges the potential of crypto but avoids less regulated areas to mitigate risk.
• Crypto must reassess its position as gold gains popularity as a safe haven.
• Bitcoin’s success with ETF launches has contributed to its perception as a risk asset.
• Digital asset treasury companies are not deemed a sound investment strategy due to perceived overvaluation.
• Recent crypto price bounces were driven by digital asset treasury companies’ buying.
• Speculative assets like crypto require fresh money and enthusiasm to maintain momentum.
• Gold is currently perceived as a better safe haven than Bitcoin during market downturns.
• Stablecoins have lost some of their appeal in the current market environment.
• Geopolitical events generally do not significantly impact stock markets.
• Central bank independence is crucial for maintaining market stability and effective monetary policy.
• The inflation of the 1970s was exacerbated by low interest rates, highlighting the importance of appropriate monetary policy.

Guest intro

Steve Sosnick is Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers and Head Trader of the firm’s trading division, bringing decades of expertise in algorithmic and electronic trading strategies across equities and options markets. Prior to his current role, he held senior trading positions at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm’s renowned training program. He holds an MBA in Finance and a BS in Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Bitcoin’s role as a risk asset

• “Bitcoin has become a risk asset and has performed well during periods of monetary accommodation.” – Steve Sosnick
• The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 indicates its integration into broader financial markets.
• Bitcoin’s volatility needs to decrease to align more closely with traditional currencies.
• “Bitcoin’s success with ETF launches has contributed to its perception as a risk asset.” – Steve Sosnick
• The performance of Bitcoin during economic shifts highlights its evolving market role.
• Digital asset treasury companies’ activities have influenced recent Bitcoin price movements.
• “Bitcoin is too volatile to be considered a safe haven like gold.” – Steve Sosnick
• The divergence in performance between Bitcoin and gold reflects broader market trends.

The potential of crypto and regulatory concerns

• The firm recognizes crypto’s potential but avoids less regulated sectors to mitigate risk.
• “We understand the potential though we want to avoid some of the frothy or less regulated portions of the business.” – Steve Sosnick
• Crypto must evaluate its position as traditional assets like gold gain popularity.
• Stablecoins could attract demand that might otherwise go to Bitcoin.
• “Stablecoins have lost some of their appeal in the current market.” – Steve Sosnick
• Tokenized gold may siphon off demand from Bitcoin in the future.
• The regulatory landscape is a critical factor in crypto’s development and market perception.
• “Crypto needs to reassess its position as traditional safe havens like gold gain popularity.” – Steve Sosnick

Gold vs. Bitcoin as safe havens

• Gold is currently perceived as a better safe haven than Bitcoin during market downturns.
• “Gold has a thousand-year head start on Bitcoin and hasn’t had the sort of volatility.” – Steve Sosnick
• Bitcoin’s volatility challenges its role as a stable store of wealth compared to gold.
• The historical stability of gold contributes to its perception as a more reliable asset.
• “Gold has recently outperformed Bitcoin, but their performance over a two-year period has been relatively similar.” – Steve Sosnick
• The performance divergence between gold and crypto indicates broader market trends.
• “Gold is currently a better safe haven than Bitcoin during acute market downturns.” – Steve Sosnick
• Portfolio shifts are influenced by asset performance, leading investors to favor well-performing assets.

The impact of geopolitical events on markets

• Geopolitical events generally do not significantly impact stock markets.
• “Geopolitics don’t really affect stock markets per se.” – Steve Sosnick
• Major companies’ stock prices are often unaffected by specific geopolitical situations.
• “If something’s going on between the US and Venezuela, it doesn’t impact Microsoft.” – Steve Sosnick
• The market’s reaction to tariff threats is significant due to its impact on trading relationships.
• The ongoing issues with US-EU trade agreements could delay their ratification.
• “The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs could have significant implications for their future implementation.” – Steve Sosnick
• The volatility of political leadership can create uncertainty, but US policy stability helps mitigate this.

The role of central banks in economic stability

• Central bank independence is crucial for maintaining market stability.
• “There’s a broad consensus that central bank independence is of paramount importance.” – Steve Sosnick
• Central banks are essential for fighting inflation through interest rate policy.
• The inflation of the 1970s was exacerbated by low interest rates, highlighting the importance of appropriate monetary policy.
• “Arthur Burns kept the rates too low for too long, feeding into the inflation of the seventies.” – Steve Sosnick
• Central bank independence is crucial for effective monetary policy.
• “Realistically, the best method for fighting inflation is through central bank interest rate policy.” – Steve Sosnick
• The separation of monetary policy from political pressures is a fundamental economic principle.

The influence of global bond markets

• The recent rise in Japanese bond yields has negatively impacted global bonds, including US bonds.
• “The rise in Japanese yields really put a damper on global bonds overall.” – Steve Sosnick
• The carry trade involves borrowing in yen to invest elsewhere, but rising Japanese yields diminish this strategy’s yield advantage.
• “The lack of confidence in the Japanese bond market has caused the yen to weaken relative to the dollar.” – Steve Sosnick
• The weakening of the yen affects carry trades, influencing global market dynamics.
• The relationship between Japanese bond yields and global financial conditions is significant for investors.
• “You’re losing a lot of the yield advantage with the current carry trade situation.” – Steve Sosnick
• The dynamics of currency confidence and trading behavior are crucial for understanding market movements.

The strategic implications of NATO and Russia

• Weakening NATO plays directly into Putin’s strategy.
• “Weakening NATO is like Putin’s dream; you’re playing into his hands by antagonizing NATO members.” – Steve Sosnick
• Russia aims to delegitimize and break up NATO as part of its geopolitical strategy.
• The geopolitical implications of NATO’s strength and its relationship with Russia are significant.
• “The goal of Russia has been to delegitimize and break up NATO.” – Steve Sosnick
• The strategic consequences of geopolitical actions on international relations are crucial for market stability.
• Understanding Russia’s historical and current strategies regarding NATO is important for investors.
• The geopolitical landscape influences market dynamics and investor decisions.

The dynamics of tariffs and trade relations

• Tariffs are a tool used at the president’s discretion, creating uncertainty in trade relations.
• “The tariffs exist at the president’s whim, creating unpredictability in trade relations.” – Steve Sosnick
• The Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs could reshape trade practices.
• “We could have heard how the Supreme Court’s gonna rule on the tariffs and what the remedies may be.” – Steve Sosnick
• The fluid nature of tariffs and their dependence on presidential decisions highlight trade unpredictability.
• The potential legal ramifications of tariff policies are significant for market participants.
• The relationship between tariffs, market sentiment, and company performance is crucial.
• Understanding the political landscape and the role of tariffs in trade policy is important for investors.

The historical context of US policy and market resilience

• The volatility of political leadership can create uncertainty, but US policy stability helps mitigate this.
• “The stock market’s rolled with personal and policy volatility due to belief in US policy stability.” – Steve Sosnick
• The goodwill the US has built over decades contributes to its market resilience despite political volatility.
• “The belief in overall policy stability over decades shapes market perceptions.” – Steve Sosnick
• The historical stability of US policy influences current market reactions.
• The importance of historical goodwill in shaping current market perceptions is significant.
• The relationship between political dynamics and market behavior is nuanced.
• The US’s historical influence on global markets is a key factor in economic discussions.