Wintermute: Macroeconomic factors and other drivers have propelled the crypto market into a bear market, but it may end sooner than previous bear markets.
PANews reported on February 3rd that, according to Wintermute analysis, Bitcoin fell below $80,000, triggering $2.55 billion in leveraged position liquidations over the weekend. This decline was driven by multiple macroeconomic factors: earnings from the Big 7 tech stocks (Mag7) putting pressure on the AI narrative, Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman raising policy uncertainty, and a sharp liquidation of speculative positions in the precious metals market. The report analysis points out that the market's reaction to these negative factors was delayed, ultimately concentrated over the weekend when liquidity is typically lower. Because market leverage levels were still high previously, this resulted in the tenth largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history. In this correction, crypto assets underperformed the vast majority of traditional assets.
The report argues that the market has entered a bear market, but unlike previous bear markets triggered by structural collapses in industries (such as the FTX and Luna incidents), this decline is primarily driven by the macro environment and narrative rotation, leading to an organic deleveraging process. Due to the absence of forced bankruptcies or cascading contagion, this cycle may end faster than past bear markets. Current infrastructure is more robust, stablecoin adoption continues to grow, and institutional interest has not disappeared but is temporarily on the sidelines. Once macroeconomic uncertainties subside and the Fed's policy path becomes clearer, market attention may quickly return in the second half of 2026. Current market positioning has lessened after liquidation, but confidence remains weak, and prices have re-entered an exploratory phase after two months of sideways trading. While it is too early to discuss a trend reversal, given the lack of structural damage to the crypto ecosystem, any meaningful upward trend may be clearer than rallies in previous bear markets.
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