RAY Weekly Analysis Jan 28

RAY closed the week up 9.71%, reacting from the $0.96 low while maintaining the overall sideways trend structure; however, the MACD bearish signal and BTC downtrend dictate a cautious stance for altcoins. Breaking the critical $1.10 resistance could trigger a long-term trend change.

RAY in the Weekly Market Summary

RAY moved in the $0.96-$1.07 range last week, recording a 9.71% rise, with the current price positioned around $1.06. This movement signals short-term recovery despite pressured market conditions, though the overall trend remains sideways. Volume profile precedes at the $1.85M level, RSI at 50.60 in the neutral zone, and MACD with a negative histogram indicating bearish momentum. Holding above EMA20 ($1.05) suggests short-term bullish elements, but the main trend filter is bearish, and upside remains limited without breaking resistance around $1.25. In the macro context, there is no significant news flow, but BTC’s downtrend increases altcoin rotation risk. This week is critical for position traders testing the accumulation phase; you can access detailed data from the RAY Spot Analysis page.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

Looking at the long-term view, RAY is squeezed in a sideways channel on the weekly timeframe; lower boundary $0.96, upper boundary defined as the $1.25-1.26 region. Market structure shows bullish divergence by forming higher lows, yet the trend remains intact bearish without breaking higher highs. The main trend filter gives a bearish signal, while price action flattening between EMA50 and EMA200 indicates the end of the distribution phase and potential transition to accumulation. In this structure, the $1.5265 target stands as the long-term upside objective, but downside risk is open to $0.53. For portfolio managers, this sideways phase may offer a long-term position accumulation opportunity, as altcoin rotation is expected in the overall crypto cycle.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile and price action exhibit accumulation phase characteristics in the $0.96-$1.05 range: low-volume low tests and increasing volume on the rise show growing buy-side interest. However, decreasing volume at the $1.07 peak recalls distribution patterns; if the $1.10 resistance is broken, accumulation may complete and a breakout could follow. For now, the market phase has a ‘spring and test’ character; according to Wyckoff methodology, strong hands are seen taking positions in this range. The bearish MACD histogram keeps distribution risk alive, but RSI neutrality draws a balanced picture.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, RAY holds above EMA20 ($1.05), capturing short-term bullish confluence; on the 1D timeframe, there are 2 supports ($0.9623 score 71/100, $1.0498 score 68/100) and 3 resistances ($1.1009 score 68/100 dominant). Price at $1.06 is at a critical inflection point; breaking $1.10 confirms the daily uptrend. Momentum is neutral (RSI 50.60), but buys remain volume-less while MACD is negative. If this level is not broken, a retest of $0.96 is likely.

Weekly Chart View

On the weekly view, the sideways channel dominates; on 1W, there are 2S ($0.9623, $0.5306) and 3R ($1.2628, $1.5265) with a total of 10 strong level confluences. Adding 1R ($1.1009) on 3D makes multi-TF confirmation a must for breakout. Market structure confirms accumulation if weekly close stays above $1.07; otherwise, distribution continues. For long-term traders, this confluence defines the weekly strategy.

Critical Decision Points

Main supports: $1.0498 (68/100), $0.9623 (71/100) – this is the channel bottom, trend intact if held. Resistance point: $1.1009 (68/100) – break triggers upside, $1.2628 (63/100) intermediate target. Upper target $1.5265 (61/100), lower risk $0.5306 (22/100). These levels are inflection points that will determine market structure; check futures data for RAY Futures Analysis. R/R ratio can be calculated as 1:2.5 on upside, 1:3 on downside.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

If $1.1009 resistance is broken and weekly close comes above $1.10, long positions activate with $1.26 target; stop-loss below $0.96. In this scenario, accumulation phase completes and opens the way to $1.52. Position size should be limited to 2-3% risk, managed with trailing stop on EMA20.

In Case of Fall

If $1.0498 breaks, short opportunities test $0.96, ultimate $0.53 target; stop above $1.10. Descent below sideways channel bottom confirms distribution and is time to reduce positions. Risk management is priority, BTC downtrend supports this scenario.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $89,847; key supports $88,351 / $86,075, resistances $90,687 / $92,000. BTC Supertrend bearish signal commands caution for alts – RAY will struggle to rise without BTC bottoming. BTC breakout above $90K triggers rotation in RAY; break below $88K brings $0.96 test. Alts stay sideways as dominance rises.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week, watch the $1.10 resistance and $1.05 support; weekly close required for breakout confirmation. BTC $90K reaction is critical, follow current data from the RAY and other analyses page. Strategic stance: Wait and see, long bias if accumulation signals strengthen.