OP Technical Analysis Jan 28

OP is stuck between critical $0.2989 support and $0.3042 resistance at the $0.30 level. While the downtrend dominates, near-term breakouts could trigger liquidity hunts.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

Optimism (OP) is currently consolidating at the $0.30 level and moving within the overall downtrend. Despite a limited recovery with a 24-hour change of +%1.28, the price continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.31), which gives a short-term bearish signal. RSI at 46.33 is in the neutral zone, but the Supertrend indicator is bearish and pointing to $0.36 resistance. 10 strong levels were identified across multiple timeframes (MTF): 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2 resistances on 3D, and confluence of 2 supports/2 resistances on 1W. The price stayed in a narrow range of $0.29-$0.30 over the last 24 hours, with volume at $49.82M being low. This structure indicates that big players are waiting to gather liquidity; a break below $0.2989 could accelerate the downside, while above $0.3042 would signal a recovery. In the broader structure, OP is near the lower band of the weekly downtrend channel, confirming seller dominance.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

$0.2989 (Strength Score: 76/100) – This level stands out as OP’s most critical buyer zone. Why? Strong rejection candles formed on the last 3 tests in the 1D timeframe; buyers entered with volume spikes each time, resulting in +%5 bounces. Excellent MTF confluence: overlaps with the 1W support zone and also the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. It can be defined as an order block – a demand zone formed after low-volume accumulation in November 2025. High volume node (HVN) present in the volume profile, meaning institutions protected liquidity here before stop hunts. The importance of this level is that the price has touched and held here 4 times; in case of a break, equal lows would be violated, opening the path to $0.2769. Nearby stop level below $0.2975.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

$0.2769 (Strength Score: 68/100) – Secondary support represents the main demand zone on the 1W timeframe. Historically tested after a major reversal in October 2025, it initiated a +%15 rally. Confluence factors: aligned with EMA50 ($0.278), pivot low confluence, and liquidity pool (stops from previous swing lows here). Volume spike observed, a region where buyers entered aggressively. Invalidation level below $0.2750 – if broken, the downtrend accelerates and brings the $0.1577 downside target (albeit low score) into play. High stop hunt risk; a sweep here could come if liquidity is pulled from $0.2989.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

$0.3042 (Strength Score: 81/100) – The nearest and strongest resistance; just above the current price ($0.30, %1.4 away). Why critical? Supply order block on 1D and 3D – highs rejected during the December 2025 rally clustered here. Bearish pinbar formations in 4 out of the last 5 tests, with seller pressure on volume. Confluence with EMA20 ($0.31), a zone where short sellers target liquidity. Volume breakout required for a break; otherwise, fakeout risk exists. This level also covers the 24h high.

Main Resistance and Targets

$0.3271 (Strength Score: 61/100) – Main resistance, strong with 1W and 3D confluence. %50 Fib retracement of the January 2025 peak here, tested 3 times historically as resistance, with +%8 pullbacks each time. Supply imbalance zone – formed after low-volume decline. Upper target $0.4279; reaching there requires strong bullish engulfing and volume confirmation at $0.3271. R/R ratio upside around 1:2.5 (calculated from $0.30). Invalidation with daily close above $0.33.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

Big players (smart money) may be targeting the liquidity pool below $0.2989 (retail stops) – full of equal lows. Above, sell-side liquidity in the $0.3042-$0.31 range (breakout buy stops). The price squeezing in a tight range is ideal for manipulation; under bearish Supertrend, sellers have the advantage. With low volume, sudden spikes may signal breakout fakeouts. Order flow analysis: Buying exhaustion in the last 1D candles, liquidity grab to $0.2769 expected. On-chain big wallet movements support: Accumulation concentrated around $0.28.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,024 level in downtrend (+%0.39 24h), showing high correlation with OP (%0.85). If BTC breaks $88,399 support (Supertrend bearish), OP gets pulled to $0.2769 with cascade effect in alts. BTC resistances $89,370-$91,314 should be monitored; if BTC bounces, OP could test $0.3271. BTC Dominance rising, caution for altcoins: If BTC slips below $86,075, OP’s $0.1577 downside risk increases. Key BTC levels: Support $88,399/$86,075, Resistance $89,370.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: Daily close above $0.3042 for long bias ($0.3271/$0.4279 targets, stop below $0.2989). Conversely, $0.2989 break for short signal ($0.2769 target, invalidation above $0.3042). Risk management essential: Position size %1-2 risk, R/R 1:2+. Wait for consolidation for OP Spot Analysis, monitor volatility for leverage in OP Futures Analysis. This analysis is not investment advice; market is dynamic.