Analyst Warns of $50 Drop As Morgan Stanley Files ETF Application

• Solana holds its multi-year trendline at $136, but analyst Ali Charts warns a break could trigger a drop to $50.
  
• Morgan Stanley filed for a Solana ETF with staking, joining the institutional wave that pushed SOL products past $1B in assets.
  
• Mobile token launch is set for January 21, allocating 20% of supply to users—a fundamental catalyst amid technical uncertainty.
  

Solana price today trades near $136 as the token tests a rising trendline that has supported price since 2024. The level has become critical as analyst Ali Charts warns a breakdown could send SOL toward $50, while institutional adoption accelerates with Morgan Stanley’s latest ETF filing.

Morgan Stanley Enters Solana ETF Race

Morgan Stanley filed applications this week for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana exchange-traded funds, marking the firm’s first entry into crypto ETF products. The Solana filing includes a staking component, allowing investors to earn yield on their holdings.

The move comes as Solana ETFs surpassed $1 billion in total assets under management in early January. Bitwise’s BSOL leads with $681 million, followed by Grayscale’s GSOL at $170 million and Fidelity’s FSOL at $125 million. The products have recorded consecutive weeks of net inflows since launching in late 2025.

Institutional adoption provides a fundamental backstop, but price action shows the market remains focused on technical structure. SOL has failed to reclaim the EMA cluster between $153 and $164, leaving the rising trendline as the final defense against deeper correction.

Mobile Token Launch Adds Near Term Catalyst

Solana Mobile confirmed a January 21 launch date for its SKR token, with 20 percent of total supply allocated to eligible users and developers. The airdrop targets early adopters of Solana Mobile’s Saga and Chapter Two devices, rewarding participants in the ecosystem’s hardware push.

The launch occurs at a pivotal moment for price. If the trendline holds and SOL bounces before January 21, the token distribution could amplify momentum as recipients engage with the broader Solana ecosystem. If the trendline breaks first, the airdrop becomes secondary to technical damage control.

Trendline Break Targets $50 According To Analyst

Solana price today sits directly on the rising trendline that has supported rallies since early 2024. Analyst Ali Charts highlighted the level as critical, stating a break could send SOL to $50.

The chart shows:

• 20-day EMA: $155.51
• 50-day EMA: $163.90
• 100-day EMA: $153.31
• 200-day EMA: $118.61
• RSI: 41.49

SOL trades below the 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, all of which now act as resistance. The 200-day EMA at $118.61 sits well below current price, showing the long-term trend remains intact despite the recent weakness.

The weekly RSI at 41.49 reflects neutral momentum with a bearish lean. Price has tested the trendline multiple times over the past months, and each test has resulted in a bounce. This time, the confluence of analyst warnings and weak EMA structure increases the risk of a breakdown.

Short Term Chart Shows Consolidation At Trendline

The 4-hour timeframe shows SOL consolidating between $133 and $137. The Supertrend indicator sits at $133.36, marking immediate support. The Parabolic SAR reads $135.00, confirming the trend has shifted neutral after the recent decline.

Buyers need to reclaim $140 to flip the structure back toward bullish. That would place price above the SAR and open a path toward retesting the $144-$148 resistance zone. Losing $133 confirms the trendline break and likely accelerates selling toward $125, with $118 as the next major support.

Volume has been modest during the consolidation, which is typical before a decisive move. The breakout or breakdown will determine whether the institutional inflows provide enough support to hold structure or if technical selling dominates.

Outlook: Will Solana Go Up?

The setup is binary. If SOL holds the trendline and closes above $140 with volume, the chart shifts back toward recovery mode. Reclaiming $153 would invalidate the bearish setup and target $164, with further upside toward $180 if momentum builds into the SKR launch.

If price loses $133 and breaks the trendline, the move confirms Ali Charts’ warning. That exposes $118 initially, with deeper downside toward $100-$90 if panic selling takes over.

Holding $133 keeps the structure intact. Losing it activates the $50 target scenario.