Bitcoin is entering late December with signs of internal rotation, according to on-chain analysis from VanEck. At the same time, price action remains capped below a key short-term trend level, reinforcing a cautious market structure.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Shift Supply to New Entrants
Longer-term Bitcoin holders are increasingly transferring coins to newer market participants, according to mid-December on-chain analysis published by VanEck. The data tracks net changes in Bitcoin not moved for at least 180 days and shows repeated periods where older coins leave long-term wallets while newer holders absorb supply.
Long Term Bitcoin Holder Rotation. Source: VanEck
The chart highlights alternating waves of accumulation and distribution across market cycles. Positive spikes indicate periods when long-term holders added Bitcoin to dormant wallets. In contrast, deep negative readings show phases when those same holders reduced exposure. Several of the largest drawdowns align with major bull market tops, where long-term investors historically supplied liquidity to rising demand from newer buyers.
Into late 2025, the pattern has turned negative again. The 180-day net change shows sustained outflows, signaling that older holders are distributing coins rather than accumulating. While the scale remains below past cycle extremes, the direction mirrors earlier late-cycle behavior. At the same time, newer holders appear willing to absorb the flow, keeping overall market structure intact.
VanEck’s analysis frames the move as a rotation rather than panic selling. Long-term holders, who typically have lower cost bases, tend to reduce exposure as prices rise and valuations stretch. Newer entrants, by contrast, often enter during periods of strong momentum, taking on supply from older wallets. This transfer does not automatically signal a market top, but it has historically coincided with maturing bull phases.
The data also shows that these transitions rarely happen in a straight line. Distribution phases often pause or reverse briefly before resuming, reflecting price consolidation and shifting sentiment. As of mid-December, the trend remains consistent with late-cycle supply rotation, with long-term holders acting as net sellers and new holders becoming the primary source of demand.
Bitcoin Stalls Below 4 Hour 200 Moving Averages, Trader Says
Meanwhile, Bitcoin kept failing near its 4 hour 200 period moving average and exponential moving average, according to a chart shared by analyst Daan Crypto Trades on Dec. 23. The chart showed BTC trading near $87,545 on Bitfinex, while the 4 hour 200 EMA sat around $91,102 and the 4 hour 200 MA around $89,201, leaving price below both trend gauges.
Bitcoin Rejects 4 Hour 200 MA EMA. Source: TradingView. Source: Daan Crypto Trades on X
In a post on X, the analyst wrote:
“$BTC Keeps rejecting from its 4H 200MA/EMA Trend. If this wants to get out of this choppy range, that would be the first level that needs to be broken on the upside.”
The comment framed the moving averages as the first upside barrier, with repeated rejections suggesting sellers defended that band during recent rebounds.
The chart also showed a series of sharp dips followed by quick rebounds, marked by curved annotations under several lows. Price then moved into a sideways stretch, with candles compressing beneath the moving average zone. That setup matched the analyst’s “choppy range” description, with volatility spikes failing to flip the trend lines into support.
If BTC clears the 4 hour 200 MA and 200 EMA and then holds above them, traders often treat that as a shift in short term control. Until then, the chart implied that rallies into the moving average band continued to meet supply, while the range structure stayed intact.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/13289/van-eck-data-flags-bitcoin-holder-rotation-as-price-struggles-below-key-trend-level
