Elon Musk's charm is the booster for SpaceX's proposed $800 billion IPO
Elon Musk is pushing SpaceX toward an $800 billion valuation for a public listing next year, and the entire move leans heavily on Elon’s ability to persuade people with nothing but confidence, scale, and that wild mix of certainty and chaos he carries into every room.
Bret Johnsen, SpaceX’s CFO, described a secondary share sale that lets the company and eligible shareholders sell up to $2.56 billion at $421 a share. The road to this $800 billion is tied to the explosion of Starlink, the direct-to-mobile roadmap, and new steps taken in the Starship program for moon and Mars missions.
The valuation would equal 62.5 times sales, putting SpaceX in a bracket where only Palantir sits at about 70 times. On Friday, Elon asked his fans on X that:-
The man wants orbital AI data centers, Starship runs that bring people to Mars, and factories operating on the moon. These ideas sit under a single theme, owning a huge piece of the future space economy built on AI systems, robotic labor, and travel networks outside Earth.
And our boy depends on charm, credibility, and his ability to make investors believe that this is the only company capable of building that world.
Pushing investors with vision and hard numbers
The strategy mirrors what happened at Tesla, where Elon attracted retail investors long before institutions ever took him seriously. SpaceX is seeing the same pattern now.
A group of analysts and fund managers argues that the mix of fast Starlink growth and the long-term roadmap could move SpaceX into the same class as Nvidia and Microsoft.
Jeremy Abelson, founder of Irving Investors and an investor in SpaceX, said the company is “an N of 1” and that its IPO would “likely have the biggest retail bid of all time,” adding that the valuation “does not need to make sense when it comes public.”
Morgan Stanley estimated in October that Starlink could exceed one billion subscribers by 2040, covering nearly three-quarters of SpaceX’s projected $122 billion in sales.
Starlink already produces most of the company’s revenue, and Elon has plans to get into mobile service soon too, specifically through a partnership with T-Mobile, meant to connect remote users through satellite signals.
Analysts led by Adam Jonas said Starlink will lift its direct-to-mobile capacity by more than 100 times, helped by a spectrum agreement with EchoStar, which enables full 5G connectivity.
Not everyone agrees the EchoStar spectrum is enough though.
See, Michael Rollins of Citigroup said the amount purchased would not support a disruptive mobile network. Morgan Stanley argued that cross-selling to carriers could still bring high returns without competing with them head-on.
And Ali Javaheri of PitchBook said Starlink could “theoretically beam into every cell phone on planet Earth,” describing an “almost unlimited total addressable market.”
The author of this article is also a bit concerned about SpaceX’s control of the launch business. The company flies missions for NASA and the US Department of Defense, and even AST SpaceMobile, a competitor to Starlink, uses Falcon 9 rockets to move its satellites into orbit.
Weighing the market hunger, the froth, and the Elon effect
Analyst George Ferguson pointed out that the timing for an IPO is “as good as it gets,” considering SpaceX’s strength in low-Earth-orbit internet and launch operations, though he warned that the market is frothy. He also said firms like Blue Origin, backed by Jeff Bezos, could close the competitive gap in the next few years.
George explained that waiting too long could reduce how unique investors believe SpaceX is: “The more you sit on it, the more other companies can build, have success launching into space, and the less people will value you as if you’re a one of a kind company.”
Evelyn Chow of Neuberger Berman said low sensitivity to valuation gives SpaceX space to operate as a public company. But building orbital data centers requires large capital, complex hardware, and answers for radiation, maintenance, and energy needs in orbit.
Aviation analyst Rob Stallard called the IPO plan a “sure sign that the equity market is frothy.” With expected $15 billion in sales this year, an $800 billion valuation equals 80 times revenue. Even the $800 billion figure being set in the share sale would place SpaceX ahead of the combined value of the six biggest U.S. defense firms and put it just behind 12 companies in the S&P 500, Morgan Stanley said.
Javaheri described the trust investors place in him as the “Elon premium,” tied to his record of building companies through nothing but charm.
The author of this article holds Tesla and plans to buy SpaceX shares the second the window opens, not because Elon is the most special person in the world, but because this is exactly the kind of circus I’m willing to stand in line for on the trading floor.
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