Bitcoin Price Prediction: Warns of Spot vs Perps Divergence

Bitcoin is showing a split that traders usually do not want to see. Spot traders are selling, while perpetual futures traders still lean bullish, and that gap can point to a weaker setup.

Bitcoin Rebounds From Key Fib Fan Support as Weekly Structure Turns Constructive

The chart shows Bitcoin on the weekly timeframe trading near $72,269 after bouncing from the lower part of the current Fibonacci fan structure. Price recently recovered from the mid $60,000 area and is now pushing back toward the next projected path higher. That rebound matters because the move started near the 0.5 fan zone, which the chart treats as an important support area.

Bitcoin Weekly Fibonacci Fan Chart. Source: SkyHighTA 

At the same time, the chart does not show a clear double bottom. Instead, it shows BTC falling from the upper part of the channel, breaking below the 0.25 and 0.382 fan areas, and then stabilizing before moving higher again. So the stronger point here is not a textbook double bottom but a recovery from a major fan support region after a sharp correction.

The image also suggests that Fibonacci fan levels are acting as trend guides. Once price lost one level, it moved down toward the next one. Now Bitcoin is trying to climb back after holding support around the 0.5 zone. If that recovery continues, the chart points to resistance first near the upper $80,000 to mid $90,000 area.

However, downside risk remains visible. The chart marks lower zones around $53,000 and near the red 0.75 fan line as possible support if BTC loses the current rebound. For now, the weekly setup looks constructive because Bitcoin has bounced from a major support line, but it still needs to reclaim higher fan levels before a larger bullish continuation is confirmed.

Bitcoin Shows a Split Between Spot Selling and Perpetual Futures Buying

The chart shared by Ted shows a divergence between spot and perpetual futures activity, and that split often signals instability in the short term. In the lower panels, aggregated spot CVD trends lower, which suggests spot traders are selling. Meanwhile, aggregated futures CVD moves higher, which shows perpetual traders are leaning bullish.

Bitcoin Spot vs Perps CVD Chart. Source: Ted on X 

That difference matters because spot flow usually reflects more direct buying and selling pressure in the underlying market. When spot sells while perps keep buying, the move can become fragile. In other words, leveraged traders may be pushing for upside while actual spot demand weakens.

The price chart above also fits that warning. Bitcoin moved lower during much of the displayed period, even as futures positioning stayed relatively firm. So the bullish perp activity did not produce a strong or clean recovery. Instead, the setup points to a market where leverage is trying to lift price while spot flow fails to confirm the move.

Therefore, the signal is not strong for bulls yet. For a healthier setup, traders would usually want spot demand to improve alongside futures positioning. Until that happens, the chart suggests caution, because bullish perp interest without spot support can increase the risk of rejection or a squeeze in the opposite direction.