Bitcoin Caught Between Bulls and Bears

Bitcoin bounced from the $86,000 area, but bulls are finding it hard to hold higher ground, showing that sellers are still active on every rally. Price action suggests hesitation rather than strength, with traders unwilling to chase upside in the current environment. Views on Bitcoin’s direction remain sharply divided. Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao struck an optimistic tone, saying BTC could be entering a super cycle over the next 12 months. On the other side, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin may have already formed a long-term top, adding that the eventual bottom could be painful and drawn out. Despite this uncertainty, institutional sentiment looks steadier beneath the surface. Several large players see Bitcoin as undervalued in the $85,000 to $95,000 range, and Coinbase data shows that nearly 80% of surveyed institutions plan to hold or add if prices fall another 10%.

That confidence, however, has not yet translated into fund flows. Crypto investment products swung sharply from inflows to heavy outflows last week, reflecting fragile market sentiment. Crypto ETPs saw $1.73 billion leave the market, one of the largest weekly outflows since late 2025. Bitcoin and Ether led the withdrawals, while a few altcoins like Solana and Chainlink managed to attract modest inflows. The broader market took another hit late Sunday, with nearly $100 billion wiped out amid rising geopolitical tensions, fears of a US government shutdown, and renewed tariff threats. Bitcoin slipped back toward $86,000, while Ether and other altcoins saw even deeper percentage losses as risk appetite faded.

Regulatory progress also slowed, with US lawmakers and regulators delaying key crypto-related meetings due to severe winter storms. This added to near-term uncertainty, keeping traders cautious. Meanwhile, traditional safe-haven assets continue to steal the spotlight. Gold and silver surged to fresh highs, drawing capital away from crypto. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee noted that crypto may struggle until precious metals cool off, even though long-term fundamentals are improving. He added that the industry is still feeling the effects of last year’s deleveraging, which reduced speculative firepower but left the market structurally healthier.

A fresh report from the UK Cryptoasset Business Council highlights another growing pressure point for the market, showing that many UK banks are effectively cutting off crypto users. According to the survey, most major banks are placing blanket limits or outright blocks on transfers to and from crypto exchanges, even when customers are using regulated platforms. The report, titled Locked Out: Debanking the UK’s Digital Asset Economy, is based on responses from 10 of the UK’s largest centralized exchanges, which together serve millions of users and have handled hundreds of billions of pounds in transactions. Rather than relying on anecdotes, the study puts numbers behind what many traders and investors have been experiencing firsthand. The findings paint a concerning picture for the UK crypto ecosystem. Eight out of 10 exchanges reported a clear increase over the past year in customers facing blocked, delayed, or restricted bank transfers, while none reported any improvement. The UKCBC warned that these banking practices are becoming a serious roadblock to growth and could weaken the UK’s ambition to position itself as a global digital asset hub. For traders, this adds another layer of friction, making fiat on-ramps less reliable at a time when market conditions already demand speed, flexibility, and access to liquidity.

The crypto market remains in a fragile recovery phase, with Bitcoin struggling to regain momentum above key resistance levels. Short-term price action suggests rallies are likely to face selling until macro uncertainty eases. Institutional interest provides a supportive base, but flows need to stabilize for a sustained move higher. Geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty are keeping traders defensive. As long as gold and silver continue to attract safe-haven demand, crypto may lag. Bitcoin holding above the $85,000–$86,000 zone is critical to avoid deeper downside. A reclaim of $95,000 would be an early sign of improving momentum. Altcoins are likely to remain volatile and selective, with strength limited to specific narratives. Regulatory clarity could act as a catalyst later, but delays mean patience is required. Overall, the market favors cautious positioning, with traders waiting for clearer signals before committing heavily to risk.

Bitcoin faced rejection at the 20-day EMA near $90,521 on Friday and slipped below its uptrend line over the weekend, showing that sellers are still firmly in control. The 20-day EMA has started to roll over, and the RSI remains in negative territory, which keeps the short-term bias tilted toward the bears. Any bounce from current levels is likely to run into selling pressure near the moving averages, as traders look to sell rallies. If BTC fails to reclaim these levels and turns lower again, the price could slide toward the $84,000 support and then to $80,600, which is the next major demand zone. This bearish setup would weaken if buyers step back in aggressively and push the price above the moving averages. A strong close above them could shift momentum and allow Bitcoin to retest the $97,924 resistance area.

Ether has confirmed a bearish break from its symmetrical triangle after slipping below the support line on Sunday. Buyers are trying to push the price back into the triangle, but bears are expected to defend the recovery near the moving averages. If ETH gets rejected again from these levels, the downside risk increases, with $2,623 coming into focus as the next key support. For sentiment to improve, bulls need to quickly reclaim the moving averages and invalidate the breakdown. A move back above these levels would suggest a possible bear trap and could open the door for a rally toward the triangle’s resistance line.

BNB closed below its 50-day SMA around $883, signaling that buyers are losing momentum. The bounce from the uptrend line looks weak, and sellers are likely to step in again near the 20-day EMA at $896. If the price turns down from there, BNB could slide toward the critical $790 support. Bulls are expected to defend this level strongly, as a break below it could restart the broader downtrend. A clearer bullish signal would only emerge if BNB manages to reclaim the moving averages and build acceptance above them. In that case, the price could move toward the $959 resistance zone.

Bitcoin remains under pressure as long as it trades below the falling 20-day EMA. Short-term traders should expect selling on rallies until BTC can reclaim the moving averages. A move toward $84,000 and $80,600 is possible if downside momentum picks up. Bulls will only regain confidence on a strong break above the moving averages, followed by a push toward $97,924. Ether’s triangle breakdown keeps the near-term outlook cautious, with bears in control below the moving averages. Any recovery attempt in ETH may be short-lived unless the price quickly re-enters the triangle. A failure there could lead to another leg down toward $2,623. BNB is also showing weakness, with sellers defending every bounce. The $790 level is a key line in the sand for BNB bulls. Losing that support could open the door to deeper losses. Overall, the market remains defensive, and traders should prioritize capital protection until clearer reversal signals appear.

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