Bitcoin May Break Its Four-Year Cycle in 2026, Says Bitwise CIO
Every market cycle has a moment when the old playbook stops working. According to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, bitcoin may be approaching exactly that point in 2026.
In a recent note to clients, Hougan laid out why he believes bitcoin is set to break free from its long-standing four-year cycle, reach new all-time highs, and evolve into a more stable and institutionally anchored asset. The argument is not built on hype or price targets. It is rooted in structural shifts that are already reshaping how bitcoin behaves.
Why the four-year Bitcoin cycle may finally break
Bitcoin has historically followed a familiar rhythm. Three strong years driven by post-halving supply shocks, followed by a sharp correction in the fourth. By that logic, 2026 should be a bearish year. That view has gained traction as bitcoin sits more than 30 percent below its October peak near $126,000, with altcoins suffering even deeper drawdowns.
Hougan disagrees. He argues that the forces behind bitcoin’s historical cycles have weakened to the point where they no longer dominate market behavior. Halvings still matter, but each one has a smaller marginal impact on supply dynamics. At the same time, the macro backdrop for 2026 looks fundamentally different from prior cycle peaks. Instead of rising interest rates like those seen in 2018 and 2022, markets are now pricing in falling rates, which historically favor risk assets.
Add to that a sharp reduction in leverage-driven blowups following record liquidations in late 2025 and improving regulatory clarity, and the conditions that once fueled brutal post-cycle crashes appear far less potent.
Institutional adoption becomes the dominant driver
What this really comes down to is who owns bitcoin. Hougan believes institutional adoption will accelerate meaningfully in 2026, shifting bitcoin away from retail-driven boom-and-bust cycles. Major platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch are expected to begin broader allocations, while Wall Street and fintech firms deepen their exposure to digital assets.
This shift is being reinforced by a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States, particularly following the pro-crypto stance adopted under the Trump administration. For institutions that previously sat on the sidelines due to compliance and governance concerns, those barriers are steadily coming down.
As ownership broadens and capital becomes stickier, bitcoin starts to behave less like a speculative trade and more like a maturing asset class.
Lower volatility is no longer a theory
One of the more striking points Hougan makes is about volatility. Bitcoin’s reputation as an uncontrollable asset no longer matches the data.
Volatility has been trending lower for years, and Hougan expects that trend to continue into 2026. In fact, he noted that bitcoin was less volatile than Nvidia stock throughout 2025, a comparison that challenges many traditional assumptions about crypto risk.
The reason is simple. Exchange-traded funds, custodial products, and institutional mandates have diversified the investor base. Long-term allocators now play a larger role than leveraged traders, leading to steadier price behavior and fewer violent swings.
Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks may keep falling
Bitcoin is often lumped in with equities during periods of market stress, but Hougan argues that this narrative is overstated. Rolling correlation data shows that bitcoin’s relationship with stocks has rarely crossed levels that are statistically meaningful.
Looking ahead, Bitwise expects crypto-specific drivers to matter more than macro equity trends. Regulatory progress, institutional inflows, and asset-specific adoption could support bitcoin even if equities struggle with valuation concerns or slower economic growth.
If that plays out, bitcoin becomes something markets have long debated but rarely observed in practice: a genuine portfolio diversifier.
The investor trifecta for 2026
Put all of this together and Hougan sees what he calls a rare trifecta for investors. Strong returns, lower volatility, and falling correlations, all at the same time.
That combination is especially attractive for portfolio construction, where assets are judged not just on upside but on how they behave alongside everything else. If these conditions materialize, Hougan expects tens of billions of dollars in fresh institutional capital to enter the crypto market.
A sober look back at Bitwise’s 2025 calls
Hougan’s outlook for 2026 is also informed by humility. Bitwise’s 2025 predictions were directionally right but numerically ambitious.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all reached new all-time highs, validating the firm’s bullish thesis. But none came close to the aggressive price targets of $200,000, $7,000, and $750. Similarly, U.S. bitcoin ETF inflows are unlikely to exceed 2024 levels, despite expectations to the contrary.
Where Bitwise did deliver was on market structure. Coinbase joining the S&P 500, Strategy entering the Nasdaq-100, the U.S. Department of Labor softening its anti-crypto 401(k) stance, and the passage of stablecoin legislation all played out largely as anticipated.
What this really means for bitcoin
Hougan is not calling for a speculative blow-off top. He is describing a transition.
If bitcoin reaches new highs in 2026 while becoming less volatile and less correlated to stocks, it signals a market that has grown up. Not the end of cycles entirely, but the end of bitcoin being defined by them. For long-term investors, that shift may matter far more than any single price target.
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